GOLD
DEPOSIT SCHEME - WILL IT WORK THIS TIME?
S.
Guruswamy
The
Government of India have brought out once again a Draft on the proposed Gold
Deposit Scheme with the intention of monetising the idle househeld gold in the
country, estimated variously between 18000 and 25000 tons. Before any comments
are offered on the scheme, some basic attributes of this fungible commodity
have to be kept in mind.
The
annual consumption of gold in India fluctuates between 700 and 1000 tons. This
consumption is in the form of coins or jewellery or bars. Domestic production
of gold is neighbouring zero. So, if the official imports of gold fall short
of consumption, the deficit is made up by unofficial channels with the lure of
huge lucre going by the current import duty structure and as confirmed by the
daily haul of smuggled gold at almost all international airports. The entries
over land from neighbouring countries go unchecked and unreported.
The
fact remains that the country adds to its household inventory at the rate of
1000 tons of gold every year! The moot question is if any scheme can reduce
this size of annual consumption of gold in the country.
We
should also look at the fact why only a miniscule of the household hoard comes
out, that too, for only pledging? Jewellery makes up around 80% of the
consumption. Of this, about 20% would be studded jewellery. These articles of
jewellery are bought for occasions like weddings mostly and other family
functions and personal gifting. Gold Deposit Schemes are not going to reduce
this consumption a bit. Traditionally and for ages, jewellery or even other
articles of gold, once bought by a family, are bought for ever! Barring, of
course, plights of dire financial needs. Even on those occasions, mostly the
route for encashment chosen is pledge. Here, the NBFCs are playing a crucial
role. Currently, there is a cap on the interest that can be charged on the
cash handout post pledge. But earlier, these companies were alleged to have
made huge profits from the arbitrage between the interest outgo on their own
public deposits and that collected from the pledging customers. It is also true
that these companies are reported to have incurred huge losses, when it came to
selling the unredeemed jewellery at a discount in the market owing to steep
fall in gold prices. Other than those occasions, the jewellery is stored for
ever as heirloom. This is one major reason why the earlier scheme announced by
State Bank of India in 1999 with much fanfare did not take off.
With
the rise in nuclear families and change in the outlook and perception of the
younger generation about gold, we generally expected that consumption of gold
would come down. But no such reality is seen on the ground. That means the
traditional concept about gold jewellery holds sway among all generations, old
or young. Gold is still treated as currency without any official scheme for
monetisation. The ease with which this commodity can be encashed in the market
or among friends and families for cash in times of need scores over all other
commodities or articles, because of the unique size-value ratio of gold.
The
current scheme is supposed to be a replacement of the earlier scheme of the
State Bank of India, which is said to have failed for:
a.
Low interest rate; and
b. Higher
amounts of deposit
It is
difficult to believe that these reasons alone were responsible for the flop.
There is a section of the population which has in store more quantity of gold
than the rest. If idling is the factor which should have driven deposits, any
interest above zero should have been good enough, as no interest is earned at
all on idling gold! The current scheme says that tax benefits as were
available under the previous one are likely to be considered.
The
crucial question is how is the scheme going to stop or reduce annual
consumption of gold. If the consumption continues at the current rate, how is
the scheme going to avoid imports? Will quantity equal to annual consumption
be generated by the Scheme? And if the deposited gold is to be returned in
kind, how is that going to reduce imports? But even if a small proportion of
imports can be avoided, it is so much of saving in foreign exchange. The big
question remains whether the perceived incentives can prevail over tradition and
sentiments?
Presently,
the householders resort to the following windows in times of financial needs:
a. Pledge
the jewellery (to be redeemed later) for admissible cash with NBFCs. (This
section clearly does not want to part with the jewellery acquired by them)
b. Walk
into the nearest jewellery showroom (or the same one from where they bought)
and sell for cash, after a hefty discount for wastage and making charges and
administrative expenses, which vary from jeweller to jeweller. (This section is
miniscule, as integrity of the method adopted for valuation is dubious)
The
deposit scheme offers a totally different option of deferred encashment. That
this was clealy a damp-squib in the previous scheme is proved by the failure of
the scheme.
The
current draft scheme has of course the following new features:
a.
Utilising the deposited gold by banks to manage their CRR/SLR.
This will release funds equivalent to so much of gold acquired into the
monetary system.
b. Export
of such deposited gold. This would bring incremental forex into the country.
On (a)
above, it sounds imprudent to utilise the deposited gold to boost the CRR/SLR,
as the gold mopped up is loaded with 10% of import duty and other taxes, making
it so much costlier than international prices. Instead, the RBI can very well
permit the banks to replace cash for such ratios with gold imported duty-free.
On (b)
above, again export of such gold would be a costly proposition, unless draw
back of duty and other local taxes is allowed on such exports, as the export
realisation would be at international prices sans these elements.
All
these could be realised only if there is adequate interest among the public in
the Gold Deposit Scheme. With changes in the lifestyles, especially among the
younger generation, giving more priority to items of luxury and housing, let us
hope that gold is losing its sway as the most preferred spend. This would at
least reduce consumption, thus reducing imports even if the idle gold does not
get monetised under the scheme. At the same time, with the passage of time and
with the same tax benefits being ‘considered’ to be offered as previously, one
can still expect that the new scheme generates interest.
The
scheme has to take care of an important aspect, which has been ignored. The
scheme provides for return of gold in kind on maturity. As the country has to totally
depend on imports without any domestic production, the maturity value is
fraught with fluctuation of both the gold price as well as the rupee value, on
the date of maturity. This can be avoided only hedging both the values. This
would entail extra cost and has to be factored into the margin available to
the banks. If the future prices in the international markets show huge contango
and the forward premium for rupee is high, then the scheme would become
unviable, as the banks will not be able to return the deposit in kind without
incurring huge losses. Further, the RBI may have to permit the banks to buy
forward in the international commodity exchanges. If the gold has to be
returned later, it only shifts the imports to a later date, making no
difference to the overall quantum of imports.
But the
scheme can be made more attractive by including a mechanism for outright sale
by the public through official channels. Currently, the banks are not allowed
to buy any jewellery or gold bars and there is also no standard mechanism among
the private jewellers to ensure a fair price to the seller. Each jeweller has
his own thumb rule to knock off making charges and wastage from the jewellery offered
and purity from the gold offered for sale. While I said earlier there is a
section of population which walks into the nearest jewellery showroom to encash
their jewellery and other articles of gold in times of need. There is also a
large section of population which does not want short-changing by the jewellers
and hold back, though gold as a store of value has lost its charm. For the
last more than three years, gold as an instrument of saving, does not offer
any return at all. The bull run was over long ago.(Please see the table below):
|
LONDON PM FIX GOLD PRICES
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
JANUARY FIRST DAY
|
|
LONDON GOLD PM
|
INCREASE OR DECREASE
|
OF THE YEAR
|
|
FIX IN USD
|
OVER PREVIOUS YEAR
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005
|
|
|
428
|
|
NIL
|
|
2006
|
|
|
538
|
|
25.7% INC
|
2007
|
|
|
640
|
|
18.96% INC
|
2008
|
|
|
847
|
|
32.34% INC
|
2009
|
|
|
874
|
|
3.18% INC
|
2010
|
|
|
1120
|
|
28.15% INC
|
2011
|
|
|
1390
|
|
24.10% INC
|
2012
|
|
|
1598
|
|
14.96% INC
|
2013
|
|
|
1694
|
|
6.00% INC
|
2014
|
|
|
1225
|
|
38.28% DEC
|
2015
|
|
|
1170
|
|
4.70% DEC
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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A.IF
2015 IS COMPARED WITH 2011, THE DECREASE IS 18.80%
|
B.IF
2015 IS COMPARED WITH 2012, THE DECREASE IS 36.58%
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C.IF
2015 IS COMPARED WITH 2013, THE DECREASE IS 44.78%
|
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As the
banks offer an interest rate ranging from 8 to 9% p.a. on deposits, it is my
strong opinion that if there is a Govt backed scheme for buying jewellery and
gold bars, there would be huge interest. The investment component in
consumption which was around 30% of the total consumption until about 3 years
ago has totally vanished today, with international prices touching some times
below production cost levels for quite a few gold mines and those who have
invested in gold earlier would certainly grab any Govt. backed scheme to sell
their gold and invest the proceeds in bank deposits, which yield attractive
returns. And such buys can be recycled by the banks and other agencies either
for outright sale or lending, which would really reduce imports (as there is no
need to make any fresh imports to return such gold to the seller) and at the
same time bring out the household gold.
All the
banks can open special counters for this purpose. Jewellery can be melted and
refined and made into pure gold bars. Bars tendered by the public also would
need a recheck for purity. These functions can be easily handled by the
country’s only world-class, LBMA accredited Gold and Silver Refinery,
MMTC-Pamp, who can open assay centres across the country, as they have the
best of trained human resource and the latest tools and technology for faster,
fool-proof and cost efficient operation. Along with the banks, MMTC-Pamp can
also be allowed to buy jewellery and bars from the public and relend and resell
such gold in the domestic market. The banks and the refinery can charge a nominal
transaction cost to cover the melting, refining and other logistic expenses and
their margin and buy the gold at prevailing domestic prices. The State
Governments should be persuaded to exempt such purchases from purchase and
sales tax, as the gold has already suffered taxes earlier.
The
Central Government should extend all the tax exemptions to such gold purchased,
as was announced in the previous scheme. Now that the Finance Bill requires a
Pan Card for all transactions above the value of Rs.1 lakh, there would be no
need for any further due diligence. After all, the gold coming out of the
households has already suffered all taxes, including income tax, as they have
been bought from the householders’ income in the past. Offer of huge
quantities by a single individual in one lot, which raises suspicion, can
however be examined deeper for satisfying on the rightful ownership.
Besides
reducing import to the extent of procurement from the market, the banks/refinery
and the jewellers would stand to gain substantially if such gold is given to
the jewellers on INR loan for a fixed period of say 3 to 6 months. The
interest rate would be so attractive as to give adequate margins to both. This
is because, there would be no need to take any forward cover either for the
gold or for the rupee, as the repayment of the loan would be in INR and the
gold price would have been fixed at domestic rates on the date of lending.
Without the need for forward cover, interest rates can be as low as 5 to 6%
p.a. leaving a handsome margin for both the lender and borrower. In such a
situation, the jewellers would avoid imported gold where the cost of borrowing would
be much higher. The banks and MMTC-Pamp Refinery can lend the gold against the
security of a cash deposit equivalent to full value of the gold lent. Cash
deposits, converted into Fixed Deposits with banks, would increase the profit
margin of the borrowers, as the cash deposits has an arbitrage window and would
earn interest much more than the interest liability on the borrowed gold. The
banks would also report a higher growth of their deposit portfolio. This would
substantially reduce imports, provided the entire cycle is kept simple,
foolproof, fast, dependable and cost-efficient. With MMTC-Pamp Refinery being
the nodal agency for production and certification, these functions should not
be a problem at all. Reduced imports mean saving of foreign exchange. Saved
is earned! The Government should give this an aggressive try to monetise
domestic gold and reduce imports.
Disclaimer:
Views are personal and not the views of the publisher.